A HISTORY OF THE BASEBALL FORECASTER
The Baseball Forecaster is the longest, continuously-running publication in both the fantasy baseball and baseball analysis industries. Here is the chronology, and the availability of back editions (call 1-800-422-7820 for prices)...
1986 Edition (Published November 1986)
Original title: Baseball SuperSTATS
Contents: Reports for all 26 teams, each listing the top 30 players. First publication of gauges from Bill James, Pete Palmer and Thomas Boswell, all in one place. Included secondary average, total average, linear weights, runs created, plus pitching effectiveness (forerunner of strand rate) and more.
Availability: OUT OF PRINT
1987 Edition (Published November 1987)
Renamed: Baseball SuperSTATS Annual
Changes: Same format as 1986. New stats included offensive winning pct., defensive differential, baserunners prevented avg., earned runs prevented avg (next iteration of strand rate) and total pitching effectiveness.
Availability: OUT OF PRINT
1988 Edition (Published November 1988)
Renamed: The Baseball Forecaster Annual Review.
Changes: Expanded format added situational records for teams, monthly and 10-year performance trends and monthly Pythagorean projections. Draft guide history debuts, including the first player projections, for linear weights and Rotisserie ratings.
Availability: OUT OF PRINT
1989 Edition (Published November 1989)
Changes: Same format as 1988. New stats included xERA. Team projections added, using Jamesian tools like the Johnson Effect.
Availability: Limited copies available
1990 Edition (Published November 1990)
Changes: Expanded format included the debut of the first individual player boxes. Boxes listed monthly stats in one section, 5-year stats in another, plus a 2-line commentary.
Essays/Sections: Long Ago in a Galaxy Far, Far Away...; Mostly Sunny, Increasing Darkness Towards Evening; Stats du Jour (early version of the Forecasters Toolbox); Compact, Handy Dandy Fantasy Draft Guide
Availability: Limited copies available
1992 Edition (Published November 1991)
Post-dating of editions began Changes: Over 50% more players included (over 700 in all), Revised format for player boxes included snapshot analysis section, major league equivalents, full stat projections and new stats like stolen base opportunity pct. and expected linear weights.
Essays/Sections: Decomposing Idols and Near Sleep, Not Quantum Physics, Fast Food News, Fantasy Draft Guide vs. Mr. Bill, Eternally Yours
Availability: Limited copies available
1993 Edition (Published November 1992)
Changes: Debut of Pure Pitching Potential (PVal), the forerunner of BPV. Addition of more analytical essays. Burnout potential added to pitching charts.
Essays/Sections: Cocktails, Leading Indicators and the Art of Creative Discrepancy Analysis, The Key to Unlocking Pitching Performance, This Question of Predictability, A History of a Forecast, Early Bird Fantasy Draft Guide, Our Guaranteed Forecast for 1993
Availability: Limited copies available
1994 Edition (Published November 1993)
Changes: Full commentary boxes added to player analyses, introduction of power and speed ratings
Essays/Sections: Harsh Realities; Official Glossary of Abbreviations, Acronyms, Obscure Formulas, Arbitrary Concepts, Inside Jokes and Government Secrets; New Frontiers in Creative Discrepancy Analysis; Leading Indicators: Leaders and Losers; Age and Performance; Early Bird Head Start Fantasy Draft Guide; The 10 Most Dangerous Mistakes Fantasy Leaguers Make
Availability: Limited copies available
1995 Edition (Published November 1994)
Changes: Introduction of forecast risk, strand rate reappears in pitcher boxes
Essays/Sections: Canned Philosophies, Encyclopaedia of Important Stuff, The Ventura Effect, The BPV Trilogy, The Truth Behind "Inside Information," Early Bird Head Start Fantasy Draft Guide, The Beginning
Availability: Limited copies available
1996 Edition (Published November 1995)
10th Anniversary Edition.
Changes: Introduction of normalized gauges
Essays/Sections: Not all bad things happen in Pittsburgh, Challenging the Core Concept, Top Ten Reasons Why Projecting Playing Time is a Thankless Job, Finding Normalcy in an Abnormal World, Another Step Closer to Nirvana, Official Baseball Forecaster Encyclopaedia in the Back of the Book, Early-Bird, Head-Start Fantasy Draft Guide
Availability:Limited copies available
1997 Edition (Published November 1996)
Changes: Introduction of minor league prospect analysis.
Essays/Sections: Hillbillies, Top Ten Theories Why Brady Anderson Hit 50 HRs in 1996, Stranded With the Wild Steer, BPV - The Next Generation, 30 HRs is Just Another Day at the Office, Encyclopaedia, Early Bird Fantasy Draft Guide, Baseball Stats Go To Court
Availability: Limited copies available
1998 Edition (Published December 1997)
Changes: No significant changes
Essays/Sections: The Ancient Legend of TOG, Sabermetric Encyclopaedia, Forecaster's Toolbox, Top 50 Prospects for 1998, Early Bird Fantasy Draft Guide
Availability: OUT OF PRINT
1999 Edition (Published December 1998)
Changes: Runs above replacement replaces linear weights, introduction of 2-year major league equivalents for all AA and AAA players,
Essays/Sections: Crickets, Forecaster's Toolbox, Top 50 Prospects, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Sabermetric Glossary
Availability: Copies available
2000 Edition (Published December 1999)
Changes: Introduction of injury update, LIMA Plan
Essays/Sections: Revelation, Forecaster's Toolbox, MIAs and Late Breakers, Top 50 Prospects, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Legumes, Sabermetric Glossary
Availability: Copies available
2001 Edition (Published December 2000)
Changes: Introduction of walk and contact rates, expanded summaries for prospects, addition of Baseball HQ essay archive
Essays/Sections: Propaganda, Off-Season Injury Report, Top 50 Prospects for 2001, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Number Games (Time to Toss the Numbers, Pedro Martinez and the LIMA Plan, The .300 Hackers, Skills Ownership Revisited), Forecaster's Toolbox, Sabermetric Glossary
Availability: OUT OF PRINT
2002 Edition (Published December 2001)
Changes: Introduction of pitching logs, Pure Quality Start (PQS) ratings, Domination/Disaster Pcts, full forecast boxes for top prospects. Addition of hit pct (H%) to pitcher boxes, Cheater's Bookmark
Essays/Sections: Catharsis, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster's Toolbox, PQS Pitching Logs, Top Prospects for 2002, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Greatest Hits (The Truth About Predictability, Refining LIMA, The Gambler's Fallacy, Aces in the Hole, Fine-Tuning the Quest for BA), Glossary, Cheater's Bookmark
Availability: Copies available
2003 Edition (Published December 2002)
Changes: Condensed pitching logs, bullpen indicator charts. Addition of ground ball/flyball ratios, expected batting average, 5-year platoon data, pitching run support
Essays/Sections: Pilgrimage, Batting Eye: Playing the Percentages, Expected Batting Average, Fly Ball Tendency and Power, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster's Toolbox, New Perspectives in PQS, Are We Losing the Bullpen Battle?, Top Prospects for 2003, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Greatest Hits (LIMA Grading, 8 Myths of the LIMA Plan, How to Beat the LIMA Plan, Troubleshooting LIMA, Fixating on Today), It's Time to Kill Off Fantasy Baseball, Glossary, Cheater's Bookmark
Availability: Copies available
2004 Edition (Published December 2003)
Changes: Analysts from Baseball HQ contributed to the player commentaries, addition of batting hit rates, risk table, ERA/batting average percentage plays, closer volatility analysis
Essays/Sections: Fanalytics, Command: Playing the Percentages, Expected Batting Average - Take 2, Misery Index, The Next Esteban Loaiza, Batter Hit Rates, The Next Bret Boone, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster's Toolbox, PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Top Prospects for 2004, Major League Equivalents, Draft Guide History, Greatest Hits (Addressing Deficiencies, The Pitching Matrix, Got MILC?, Why We Still Fixate on Today, Legitimizing the Other 20%, The Rocky Path to Stardom, The Realities of Cynicism, Realities of the "Process", The Lesson from Loaiza), Glossary, Cheater's Bookmark
Availability: Copies available
2005 Edition (Published December 2004)
Changes: Reliability scores replace risk tables, DL days, Ball in play rates, 5x5 values replace 4x4, New formulas for several gauges, New fanalytics section, New gaming section including overhaul of draft guides
Essays/Sections: Relevance, Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster's Toolbox, Forecasting runs created, Finding in-season RBI, A look at saves conversion rates, Homerrific, Avoiding line drives, Expected strand rate, xERA2, Prospecting with BPIs, Minor league BPVs and fast starters, How important are initial PQS scores?, When command is not enough, "26", Taking April more seriously, Blurring the lines of absolutes, The power continuum, The gravity principle, Fanalytics takes on the disabled list, Abandoning command?, PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Top Prospects for 2005, Major League Equivalents, Gaming section (LIMA Plan, RIMA Plan, Stars & Scrubs vs Spread the Risk, Looking ahead to 2005, The pitching matrix, Rotisserie7, Auction draft psychology), Draft guides, Glossary, Cheater's Bookmark
Availability: Limited copies available
2006 Edition (Published December 2005)
Changes: Team section, Injury section including 5-year DL history, Stolen base opportunity pct., HR/FB rates
Essays/Sections: Longevity (The Fall of the Icon, Quest for Survival, Forever Phoenix), Foundation Philosophies, Forecaster's Toolbox, Research Abstracts (Reliability scores, Reliability revisited, Power politics, The Brian Roberts problem, The Ichiro Suzuki problem, Skill versus luck, Can Daniel Cabrera be saved?, Pitching streaks, Ground ball effects, LIMA goes yard, Prospecting for saves, The end of TOG?), PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Health Conditions, Top Prospects for 2006, Major League Equivalents, Gaming section (LIMA Plan, RIMA Plan, Advanced auction theory, Win risk, Rotisserie7, Stratified Rotisserie, Quint-Inning), Draft guides, Glossary, Cheater's Bookmark
Availability: Limited copies available
2007 Edition (Published December 2006)
Changes: Expected HRs, League base performance indicators, Gaming research, updated formulas, More ranking lists
Essays/Sections: Watch, Foundation Principles, Forecaster's Toolbox, Research Abstracts (Reliability and experience, Reliability revisited, New xBA, Forward-looking PQS, Relievers' secret edge, The impact of handedness, Examining the Coors Field effect, The case for Chien-Ming Wang, Pinpointing skills changes, Timing, streaming and investor returns, Home field advantage, The short term predictive value of xBA, Late season performances of rookie SP, Reviewing past September callups), Core Fanalytic Strategies, Alternative Gaming Formats, Gaming Abstracts (The changing face of fantasy, The 75% solution, Taming the serpentine draft, Total Control Drafting, Waiting, FAAB is in the eye of the beholder, Loss aversion and scarcity in trading, Losing intererst), PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Health Conditions, Hidden injury speculations, Top Prospects for 2007, Major League Equivalents, Ratings/Rankings/Cheat Sheets, Glossary, Cheater's Bookmark
Availability: Copies available
2008 Edition (Published December 2007)
Changes: Expanded injury section, Japanese League coverage, breakout/breakdown scores
Essays/Sections: Noise, Foundation Principles, Forecaster's Toolbox, Research Abstracts (Home run to flyball ratios, Wasted talent, Batter breakout profile, Survival of the fittest, Pitch counts and PQS, Days of rest and PQS, Short-term predictive value of xERA, The power of ground ball pitchers, Pitcher breakout profile, BPV and saves success), Gaming Research (The changing face of fantasy, Changing standards, Pigskin to cowhide, Why are we fighting?, A new look at player valuation) Fanalytic Gaming Strategies (LIMA, RIMA, Hybrid strategies, Total control drafting, Portfolio3 Plan), Fanalytic Gaming Formats (Rotisserie7, Stratified Rotisserie, Quint-Inning, Quest for the perfect format), PQS Logs, Bullpen Indicators, Injuries (The bane of our existence, Hidden injury speculations, Off-season report, Log), Prospects (Prospects in perspective, Bull Durham prospects, The value of minor leaguers, Top Prospects for 2008, Top Japanese prospects), Major League Equivalents, Ratings/Rankings/Cheat Sheets, Glossary, Cheater's Bookmark
Availability: Copies available
2009 Edition (To be published December 2008)
